Alexander Westgarth is the founder and CEO of WineCap.
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In late January 2026, India and the European Union reached what leaders have dubbed a "historic" free trade agreement, concluding nearly two decades of negotiation to link the world’s second and fourth-largest economies. While the headlines celebrate the "Mother of All Deals" for slashing tariffs on automobiles and pharmaceuticals, the agreement signals a much more profound shift for the global technology sector: the "digital border" between India and the EU has effectively collapsed.
For Indian software companies, the deal paves a new digital highway into the European market. By providing treaty-backed protections for software source code and streamlining professional mobility across 144 service sub-sectors, the agreement removes the regulatory friction that once hindered large-scale tech deployment and talent circulation. Yet, among these high-stakes digital breakthroughs, one niche category has emerged as a surprising barometer for this new era of trade: fine wine.
At first glance, wine might seem like an unlikely lens through which to view a tech-heavy trade deal. However, for the fintech community, the wine trade is no longer just about agriculture – it is a frontier for alternative finance (AltFi). The massive reduction in Indian wine tariffs (from 150% to as low as 20%) has arrived just as innovations like blockchain-enabled provenance and smart contracts for fractional ownership are reaching maturity. From where I sit as a serial fine wine entrepreneur, the implications of the India-EU deal illuminate broader themes of market access that matter to both institutional and private investors in a digital world.
Lowering the barrier to entry
India’s domestic wine consumption today is a fraction of what we see in Western markets. Per capita consumption hovers near negligible levels, and imported wine represents only the tiniest sliver of global trade. What has held that market back isn’t a lack of interest, but a combination of steep import tariffs and a fragmented regulatory landscape at the sub-national level.
However, we are now witnessing a market in the midst of a structural surge. While wine currently holds a marginal 0.6% share of India's total alcohol market, it is bucking global downturns with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16-25% through 2029. Consumption is reportedly increasing, driven by a demographic dividend where millennials and urban professionals – who account for 40% of the working-age population – increasingly view wine as a primary lifestyle and status symbol.
The headline tariff cuts are dramatic – duties on European wine, once as high as 150%, are set to fall significantly, with premium wines moving toward much lower effective rates (20%) as the deal is phased in. But it’s worth emphasising that national tariff reductions are necessary, yet not sufficient, for meaningful market transformation. Structural complexity at the state and municipal level remains the predominant barrier; for instance, state-level excise taxes can still account for up to 30% of a bottle's retail price. Until this "regulatory friction" is addressed, real accessibility will lag headline figures.
This pattern – very gradual liberalisation accompanied by regulatory complexity – is not unique to wine. Across asset classes, from tech services to financial products, reducing entry barriers is a long game. The India-EU deal shows us that opening a market on paper is only the first step; laying the groundwork for actual demand is a multi-stage process that often spans years or decades.
Why policy is only the first layer
For the fintech community, one of the most compelling parallels between wine markets and digital finance is this: true adoption rarely happens solely because of headline metrics (e.g., tariff rates, user penetration statistics). What drives long-term structural growth is a combination of accessibility, education and ecosystem development.
In the Indian wine context, figures like Sonal Holland MW and increasingly sophisticated consumer education efforts reflect a shift beyond casual interest toward deeper understanding and cultural appreciation. That’s a prerequisite for collector behaviour, which in turn drives markets for premium assets.
The right entry points matter
From an investment perspective, not all parts of a nascent market mature at the same pace. In India’s emerging wine segment, super-premium and luxury tiers are likely to be the earliest beneficiaries. Buyers in these brackets are less price sensitive and more inclined toward aspirational purchasing – the kind of behaviour that, over time, supports secondary market price formation and liquidity.
This is analogous to fintech adoption curves, where premium or institutional segments often lead before broader consumer uptake. Whether fintech or fine wine, early adopters set the tone for how markets evolve.
A global economy in flux
It’s also worth situating the deal in the context of broader global trade dynamics. With rising geopolitical tensions and fragmentation – particularly in the wake of shifting tariff regimes elsewhere – finding new avenues for integration is strategically important.
The India–EU agreement should thus be seen as part of a larger pattern of reshaping trade partnerships, diversifying supply chains, and laying the groundwork for future cooperation across sectors.
The 2026 wealth shift
As we look at the potential of nascent markets like India, it is vital to understand the global sentiment context. The gradual opening of the Indian wine market arrives at a moment of unprecedented institutional confidence in the asset class. According to the 2026 WineCap Wealth Management Survey, we have reached a definitive pivot point: 97% of UK wealth managers now expect demand for fine wine to increase this year.
This is no longer a niche "passion play." For the 97%, fine wine is viewed as a strategic hedge against equity volatility and a primary vehicle for capital preservation. While mature markets are seeing allocations grow within core portfolios, the India-EU deal provides the necessary "release valve" for supply, creating a new node of global liquidity.
For investors who think long term – especially in alternative assets whose value often accrues over decades – early moves in these emerging nodes can matter more than headline adoption today. While India is one of many nascent markets for wine, it is adopting the infrastructure of education and digital access just as global professional demand reaches its zenith. It is encouraging to see new markets (especially of this size) opening as the fine wine sector continues to mature and professionalise in already established economies.
The long-term play: Access, education, and infrastructure
No one should expect India to become a dominant wine importer overnight. The journey from niche consumption to mature market status is incremental, requiring regulatory alignment, distribution infrastructure, and consumer sophistication. But markets rarely open with a single stroke of policy. What matters is directionality.
If the India-EU trade deal marks the first meaningful reduction in barriers, and if state-level complexity begins to ease, we could see a slow but steady rise in market participation. This then becomes more than a story about the wine market; it is a reminder that structural shifts take time, but they set the stage for new forms of demand and investment behaviour.
From over two decades of experience in the wine trade, I’ve learned that while opening access is the necessary "beta" phase, it is the building of robust digital and physical infrastructure that makes a market truly mature in the long run. I’m watching closely to see how this digital background is implemented as this landmark trade deal advances to the next stages.
About the author
Alexander Westgarth is a serial fine wine entrepreneur and a recognized authority in the global wine and spirits industry with over two decades of experience.
He is the founder and CEO of a global wine ecosystem that includes WineCap, a data-led fine wine investment platform; Westgarth Wines, a leading luxury retailer; and Finer Things Imports, a specialist US wine and spirits importer.
A frequent commentator on the intersection of wine and fintech, Alexander is dedicated to bringing transparency, technological innovation, and expert guidance to the alternative asset landscape.
